So Long 2011, Hello 2012, and Best Wishes to Recruiters Everywhere!
Posted by Paul Siker on Wed, Dec 28, 2011 @ 06:57 PM
As we approach the inevitable conclusion of yet another year, it seems wholly appropriate to reflect on the past twelve months, as well as engage in a bit of prognosticating. From my vantage point, the year 2011 is best characterized by the word “unsettled.” Consider the following:
Unemployment, by historic standards, remained relatively high throughout the year, although, as the year ends, there seems to be growing sentiment that job creation is beginning to gather steam. Structural unemployment, a skills-based disconnect between existing job openings and available workers, remains prevalent.
Politically, the world has continued to be a very messy place. Internationally, we collectively witnessed the surging momentum of the Arab Spring. On the domestic front, the Occupy Wall Street movement emerged, but never effectively defined itself (seems like a movement in search of a cause). Tragically, the US Congress has earned an overall annual approval rating of 17% according to Gallup, the lowest such result ever recorded.
Economically, we came to fully appreciate that we really do reside within a global economy. While we have come to understand terms like “contagion,” and “austerity measures,” the jury is still out on what will become of the EU over the long-haul, and whether a cohesive plan will emerge to address the glaring debt load confronting the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain).
Given the above factors, it’s easy to appreciate why the stock markets have whip-sawed investors to the point where it really is hard to be certain about anything (other than pending uncertainty). Adding to investor ambivalence are the numerous market analysts who affirm that economically speaking, 2012 is likely to be another lackluster year.
What do I think? Perhaps an even more important question is why would anyone care what I think!? After all, my degree isn't in Economics or in Finance. My degree is in Political Science (well, maybe that DOES qualify me to offer an opinion - on virtually ANYTHING!). For whatever it may be worth, I’m going the contrarian route, but only modestly so. And by “contrarian,” I believe that 2012 will shape up to be an okay year. From a domestic economic perspective, I think that 2012 will be a better year than 2011. Admittedly, there aren’t any specific indices that I can cite to support my belief that things are going to be better in 2012, so chalk my sentiments up to blind faith.
In truth there are a few trends that I see as being generally positive. I believe that U.S. consumers will continue to deleverage, if only because shedding debt is about the surest and most pragmatic investment out there. I believe that job creation will only continue to improve as companies gain confidence in the broader economy and near-term potential within their respective market sectors. This, of course, should be good news for recruiters (and for recruiting trainers!). Speaking of training, I've worked with a number of clients in Q4 2011 that have added new recruiters, which is not a bad indicator in of itself. Finally, I remain hopeful that European nations will formulate policies that support a greater degree of fiscal discipline moving forward (oh that the USA could adopt some fiscal discipline!), as this seems to be the only way in which the EU remains viable.
While I maintain a modestly positive outlook, I will readily acknowledge that any number of disruptive events could occur that would throw my predictions into the proverbial compost pile, such as a significant act of terrorism, a war, or anything that threatens the global supply of oil (i.e. terrorism or war). Despite the possibility of market disruptions, I feel like we are at the precipice of a positive economic period. The last few years have been a slog, but with any luck we will see 2012 open with some positive indicators. In my mind we are overdue.
Regardless of how 2012 plays out on the global economic stage, my genuine hope is that YOUR 2012 is disproportionately wonderful, successful, and fulfilling in every respect.
Here’s wishing you fanstastic success in the New Year!
Paul